Discover Politics

The focus of Minnesota Politics fell on the River Centre in St. Paul, on Sunday, October 3rd. On this day, Republican delegates gathered from around the state to give a non-binding vote for the Republican endorsement for Governor. The weather could have been described in terms similar to the Republicans’ chances of retaining the Governor’s mansion: bleak and gloomy.

The wind whipped, and the rain fell with a ruthless chill usually reserved for November, but the party faithful came out in droves.

Republican activists appear to have recovered from the crushing defeat of the Presidential election and bitter disappointment of the Senate recount. Waving signs and sporting a variety of conservative-themed t-shirts, they cheered their office holders, and scorned any mention of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, or anyone else to the left of Chuck Norris. This convention did not have the feeling of a party on the ropes.

In fact, many activists appear delighted to be members of the outspoken opposition. Representative Michele Bachmann, who embodies this growing culture of dissidence perhaps more than any other member of Congress, recieved several standing ovations from the delegates.

At the start of a mid-term campaign season that follows several brutal elections for Republican candidates, Bachmann’s supporters will quickly remind you that she won a tough re-election last year, beating Elwyn Tinklenberg by three percent. This victory is emphasized because Bachmann became a target of Democrat donors and activists after making comments critical of then-candidate Barack Obama’s patriotism. Democrats counter that this margin of victory is five percent less than the previous election, and they will no doubt target her again.

But in the past four years, Minnesota Republicans have come to cherish victories such as this, needing any victory to stem the tide of an increasingly blue-ing state. At the start of 2006, Republicans held the Governor’s office, half of the Congressional delegation, (including the more popular half of the Senate duo), and had nearly won the state for George W. Bush in 2004. Mark Dayton, the state’s Democrat Senator, had been dubbed “The Blunderer” by Time Magazine and had opted not to run for re-election. Had Mark Kennedy, Bachmann’s Republican predecessor in the sixth district, succeeded in his bid for Dayton’s seat, Minnesota may well have been categorized as a red state for the first time since the start of the Cold War.

But alas, it was not to be. Senator Amy Klobuchar beat Kennedy handily, Republicans lost a Congressional seat to Tim Walz in the first district, and took a beating in the state legislature. Three years later, the question on the minds of Republican delegates is: are there finally clear skies on the horizon?

New GOP state party chair Tony Sutton thinks the answer is affirmative. He blames the Republican’s recent problems on a lack of a clear and coherent message or platform. As election 2010 nears, political observers can expect to see a new message coordinated by Sutton and the party’s candidate for Governor. The latter is yet to be chosen, but after this convention, the front-runner to bear Sutton’s message is State Representative Marty Seifert.

Seifert won Sunday’s straw poll of delegates with 37 percent of the vote, meaning 37 percent picked him as their first choice for Governor. Some party insiders expected a poor showing from greater Minnesota, hurting Seiferts chances of victory. But Seifert’s supporters came through, led by former State Representative Jim Knoblauch. Knoblauch and other loyal “Martisans” worked the floor up until the final vote was cast, ensuring victory over candidates with closer ties to the metro.

Seifert was followed in voting by State Representative Tom Emmer and former State Auditor and Mayor of Eagan Pat Anderson. Emmer and Anderson, from Delano and Eagan respectively, are expected to do well in the conservative Western and Southern suburbs, but Seifert’s even showing throughout the Metro and greater Minnesota carried the day.

Whether Marty or others will be able to capture the Governor’s office from a crowded field of well-funded and well-established DFL candidates has yet to be seen. St. Paul insiders aren’t optimistic for the Grand Old Party. After all, popular incumbent Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election in 2006, with more name recognition and political prowess than any of the current candidates have shown. Even some Republicans see this straw-poll as a contest for second place.

This latent fear of continued Democrat success was perhaps best spoken in a plea by freshman Congressman Erik Paulsen, who asked for activist help in 2010 so “Michele (Bachmann), John (Kline), and I don’t have to caucus in a phonebooth.” Regardless, on Sunday Republicans kept their attitudes and excitement focused on those clearer skies. Democrats will counter: if there are clear skies, they are no doubt a deep blue.